Musk predicted a 50% success rate for the fifth test flight of the SpaceX Starship, which is expected to launch in late August or early September
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On July 29, after the success of the last starship test flight, Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX's next test flight will further increase the difficulty, that is, the "chopsticks" of the launch tower's robotic arm to complete the capture and recovery of the "overweight booster."

 

On Sunday, local time, Musk revealed at the X Takeover live event that SpaceX's fifth Starship orbital test flight mission (IFT-5) is expected to take place in late August or early September, that is, the combination of overweight booster (B12) and Starship spacecraft (S30).

 

Musk predicted that the success rate of capture and recovery of the "superheavy booster" during the mission was only 50%, and the probability of the starship's heat tile/heat shield remaining intact after re-entry into the atmosphere was about 60%.

Prior to the start of IFT-5, SpaceX had begun testing the functionality of the tower arm by clamping samples in preparation for its tower capture attempt, which would later capture the 232-foot-tall booster.

 

In fact, the tower capture attempt is an industry first, and so far, SpaceX appears to be moving forward with this critical test.

 

Technically, this attempt to capture the rocket is the company's most dangerous attempt of all five tests, and if SpaceX fails to prepare in advance, an explosion that destroys the launch pad will delay all subsequent tests and will expose SpaceX to more regulatory scrutiny (last year's failed first flight caused serious damage to Pad A, Which in turn delayed the project for months). Of course, SpaceX won't risk making it unstable for recovery either, as launch pads are far more expensive than starships.

 

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